среда, 26 марта 2014 г.
Enthralled by numbers I decided to get quantitative. All supply and demand discussions need to look
The prospect of listening to an economist talk about my livelihood and passion, San Diego real estate trends, created a lot of trepidation in me yesterday morning. I prepared myself, like I usually do, with high heels and big jewelry unsure of what I was going to hear at the Downtown San Diego Realtor’s sixt car rental germany meeting. The San Diego real estate market had been hot, hot, hot last spring with a big run up in values. It has been decidedly cooler through the winter so far. Is this the new state of the San Diego real estate sixt car rental germany market? Have home prices and mortgage interest rates risen to the point of unaffordability? Are we headed for a retrenchment?
The San Diego based real estate economist, Gary London www.londongroup.com spoke to our group of downtown San Diego real estate agents for an hour, afterwards I was skipping in my heels back to my non ticketed car, excited for the future and planning to get serious about some new San Diego property acquisitions, RIGHT NOW.
What he explained, not for the first time, was that San Diego is not keeping up with housing demand. New housing, both rentals and homes for sale, should be constructed at a rate of about 12,000 per year. For several years we have been falling well short, only 5000-6000 units. By far the majorities that were built are apartments. sixt car rental germany We see this downtown San Diego, all of the current projects with cranes and fences are rentals without condo maps in place for future conversion, interesting, very interesting. Our economist buddy feels we are in the early stages of economic recovery; we have several more years of positive outlook and growth. The conclusion he reached was that for the next several 3-5 or so, we have a shortage of supply (particularly on the for sale side) San Diego real estate prices will rise. It takes such a long lead time for builders, bankers and cities to design and approve projects, that we won’t see them for a long time out into the future.
Enthralled by numbers I decided to get quantitative. All supply and demand discussions need to look at the demand, the demand comes from young people entering the housing market. There are A LOT of young people getting ready to do just that. Demographics sixt car rental germany support the theory. www.marketingcharts.com There are 42.3 Americans between 18-34, another 40.5 million between 35-44. The recession slowed everybody down, young people didn’t create their own households as early as their Boomer parents, but they are doing it now. That’s what’s fueling the rental construction and rise in rental prices. This group is huge, they were raised by Boomer parents, so don’t think they aren’t going to want what they want and then get it. They will chose smaller homes, more energy efficient and most likely will not sign up to be as house poor as their parents. They experienced the pain of the recession, so they will be very careful when they eventually buy a home. They will want low maintenance; I can’t see my son in law on a riding sixt car rental germany mower. They will want enough disposable income after the housing is paid to pursue travel and adventure. They will wait to have kids. They are culturally diverse and color blind. I’m inferring that means, forget gated community, yeah!
I’m still skipping in my heels. What I heard and then verified with my own research and experience is that barring any big screw ups by the government, like messing with the interest rate deduction, we have a generation, sixt car rental germany larger in numbers than my boomer brethren, getting ready to set up households.
The slowdown we’ve experienced through the winter is largely sixt car rental germany due to lack of supply. We just don’t have that many homes for sale in the price ranges appealing to the current Buyer pool. We desperately need more inventory in metro San Diego the $400-600k range. Like I mentioned before, these new home buyers aren’t buying just anything at any price. They are careful and wary, just like we all have learned sixt car rental germany to be. My take away, prices rose quickly last year, they are stable now, and they will rise once more. I’m out there looking for a San Diego real estate investment today!
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