пятница, 12 октября 2012 г.
Bottom Line : The airline industry is extremely competitive and airlines as a group have only been a
Q: Especially considering all of the added baggage fees and other fees that airlines have been charging recently, is it more expensive or less expensive to travel by air today compared to ten years ago?
A: I think most people would answer more expensive, but they would be wrong. It was actually less expensive to travel by air in 2011 than in 2001, 2000, 1999 and every year before that back to 1979, see details below.
The top chart above shows average airfares in the U.S. (adjusted for inflation in 2011 dollars) for domestic travel on annual basis back to 1979 (the year that airlines and airfares were deregulated) based on data from Airlines for America , both with fees (blue line) and without fees (red line). Even with fees that averaged $21.77 last year for: a) baggage ($12.77) and b) reservation change fees ($9.00), the average total fare of $365.23 in 2011 was more than 40% below the 1980 airfare peak of $611.76. Despite an increase in fares and fees that averaged $16.46 in 2011 and $26.29 in 2010 (from the all-time low fare in 2009 of $322.48), the average fare last year of $365.23 with fees was still slightly below the fare ten years ago in 2001 of $373.44, and 23.5% below the average fare 20 years ago of $477.11 and 39% below the average fare 30 years ago of almost $600. And considering that oil prices increased by an average of 29% in 2010 and almost another 20% in 2011, those increases in fuel costs dwarfed the small increases in airfares of 8% in 2010 and 5% in 2011.
The data from Airlines for America also reveal that the average number of miles flown per round-trip journey has increased by more than 20% over the last 30 years, bus tours eastern pa from 1,947 miles in 1979 to an all-time high of 2,351 miles in 2011. Therefore, the inflation-adjusted cost-per-mile traveled has gone down even more than the 40% reduction in the average air fare since the peak in 1980. The bottom chart below shows the downward trend in real cost per mile traveled (including fees), and compared to 1980 ($0.323 bus tours eastern pa per mile), the cost in 2011 was 52% cheaper ($0.155 per mile). Note that driving the average bus tours eastern pa trip distance of 2,351 miles by car would have taken about 40 hours of driving time, and would have cost about $330 for gas (at the average price of $3.50 per gallon in 2011, and assuming 25 miles per gallon), just slightly less than the average airfare of $365. Additional costs of driving would include toll charges, bus tours eastern pa wear-and-tear on your vehicle, the costs of overnight stays at hotels during your 20 hour road-trip each way, etc.
As much as consumers like to complain about rising fees for baggage and other services, the miracle of flight bus tours eastern pa is still close to the lowest cost in history, and air travelers today are getting a great bargain, especially compared to the airfares of the 1980s and 1990s and compared to the sharply rising costs for other services like college education and medical care. Considering that the average flier today is saving about $150-200 per flight compared to the cost of flying during bus tours eastern pa the 1980s, and is flying longer distances than ever before, those average baggage fees of $12.77 last year should seem like a real bargain.
1. The passenger load factor (PLF) has been gradually increasing over time and has been above 80% for the last three years (2009-2011). Ten years ago the PLF was 70% in 2001, twenty years ago it was 62.6% in 1991, and thirty years ago it was 58.6%. There were a few years in the early 1970s when the PLF was below 50%.
2. U.S. airlines bus tours eastern pa have been profitable in the last two years (2010 and 2011), but just barely the profit margin in 2011 was just 0.8%, down from 2.1% in 2010. Over the last 11 years, the industry has lost money in seven of those years, with losses totaling more than $84 billion. bus tours eastern pa Airline were profitable in the year 2006, 2007, 2010 and 2011 and earned a total of $31 billion in those years, resulting in net losses of $53 billion for the industry from 2001-2011.
Bottom Line : The airline industry is extremely competitive and airlines as a group have only been able to earn positive profits in half of the years since 1981. For the last two years airlines have been able to earn a small profit on very thin profit margins, and the higher PLFs and higher baggage fees have probably helped. The airline industry today is probably closer to a sustainable competitive model than in the past, when we got spoiled with free food and flying on planes bus tours eastern pa with plenty of empty seats. Overall, consumers have reaped significant benefits from the deregulation of airlines in 1979, and have saved billions of dollars in lower fares. Like any industry, the airline industry is evolving over time, and consumers have to adjust to the changes.
Someone mentioned crew size as a factor in the cost reduction shown in Mark s graph. I don t believe that was a major factor from 1980 on. The workhorse aircraft flying bus tours eastern pa domestic routes in the 1980s 737s, DC9/MD80s, 767s, A300s, A310s all had 2 person crews. A small number of 3 crew 727s and DC10s were flying, but many of those had been sold to FedEx for cargo transport.
As someone who actually flies for business, on a regular basis, I don t buy this whole story. Stick all the pretty charts up you like but I know that ticket prices are running higher than they were, say in 2000 to 2005 time frame.
Unless today s dollar is worth 50 cents compared bus tours eastern pa to 2005 dollars? Which would mean there s been real and substantial inflation, which everybody says there is or isn t or has or hasn t been and when it s done, all I know is what I actually have to pay for things.
There s no way around it, I m paying more for airline tickets than I did. I don t go visit family on other side of country nearly as often now, for that very reason. Of course a good part of that is also taxes (last tickets I bought two days ago, had $100 in taxes tacked on, and I know there s more taxes hidden in the cost that the end user never clearly sees as taxes ).
Wave your arms in the air again and tell me oh well, would you rather drive? . But it doesn t change the fact that air travel is a pain in the *** today, compared to what it used to be. Of course that doesn t show up on a pretty little graph, does it? No way to chart that, is there? It s not economic data so we should just ignore it, shouldn t we?
There is, however, one place where I believe I ve seen an actual cost drop, and that s in international flights (mostly Europe when I go out of country). From what I ve read that s due to increased competition. bus tours eastern pa Now, if only it was legal for non-US air carriers to fly US domestic routes. bus tours eastern pa Then maybe we d see real airfare costs drop.
Just out of curiosity, how many of you here that are buying into this story, also actually buy significant numbers of airline tickets in a year? I fly at least twice a month for work, often more. How many of your actually get to see what TSA puts people through, and has to deal with it themselves? Like, first hand experience and all?
They show polls where most people think the TSA is a good thing. But the vast majority of those idiots bus tours eastern pa rarely if ever fly. And none of them understands technology well enough to grasp the fact that all they re getting is Security Theater Live .
If people believe it s ok to not include all medical costs in inflation calculations (CPI medical share is 7%, GDP medical share is about 17%), that having bus tours eastern pa a hedonics calculation with having one for reverse hedonics (like adjusting for smaller airline seats) etc. etc., then CPI-U is just fine to measure inflation. /sarc
weight is not the only consideration. space matters as well. bags can be packed quite tightly, bus tours eastern pa far more so that a person. the volume in a plane devoted to a person could hold 6 or 8 bags. i m sure weight is a factor, but it is not the only one. exactly how weight and volume trade off in terms of costs is not somehting i know, but i think that just looking at weight alone is too limited.
Besides the ones you noted, there s less leg room, the seats recline less, no convenience of travel agents, fewer and more rushed flight attendants, smaller meals (when one is included), smaller snacks, no free magazines, bus tours eastern pa drinks are frequently not free anymore, etc. etc.
For Southwest Airlines customers, the product is the same. But it is improving. WiFi is now available on many Southwest flights, bus tours eastern pa and will soon be available bus tours eastern pa system-wide. Other in-flight entertainment options are soon to be rolled out.
Seat pitch (the legroom) on each Southwest B737 has not changed in all of those decades. I don t believe it has changed very much on other U.S. domestic aircraft. American Airlines did take out some seats and experimented with slightly larger bus tours eastern pa pitch and they lost their shirts doing so. Few airline customers were willing to pay more for larger seat pitch.
Several times a year I evaluate the savings from very small weight reductions such as glass vs plastic wine bottles and leather vs vinyl seat covers. With today s jet fuel costs, very small weight reductions can result in major savings for an airline.
What aircraft did you fly which had greater seat pitches than the 31 in and 32 in which are standard for coach class in today s narrow body aircraft? What period are you referring to? I ve searched, but I cannot find any data indicating that the common aircraft used over the past 35 years had seat pitches greater than 32 in (Except for the experiment American bus tours eastern pa tried a decade ago when they retrofitted hundreds of MD80s)
A very anemic analysis. What about the costs of getting around once you arrive at your destination? What about all the time it takes to get to the airport, go through security, board the plane, de-board the plane, wait for your baggage (assuming bus tours eastern pa it actually arrives), etc., at both ends of the trip? What about the differences in the amount of baggage you can even take? What about the joy of sitting next to (if not sitting bus tours eastern pa underneath) a stranger of questionable hygiene and/or health? What about the pure joy of being strip s
Подписаться на:
Комментарии к сообщению (Atom)
Комментариев нет:
Отправить комментарий