I don t have any dog in this hunt, JP, but it s unclear to me why the Scots would want to stick arou

Soon, the Scottish people will be voting in a referendum as to whether they want an independent Scotland. Let s put aside all the issues hyatt hotel chicago with this, like giving the vote to 16 year olds. I for one didn t know my posterior from my elbow at that age, let alone the fiscal ramifications of a completely devolved and independent economy, hyatt hotel chicago and how this might affect exchange rates and common markets. Essentially, it s a cheap vote winner for the Scottish National Party (SNP and I resent them for that (I would not allow the vote for under 21s, let alone 18 year olds ). But, that aside If the Scottish do vote for independence, and if it is given to them, then we have a political crisis in the making for the rest of the United Kingdom.
This map gives an idea of the prevalence of Conservative blue in rural English areas (there are many geographically smaller, dense pockets hyatt hotel chicago of population which are red in urban  areas, typified by the inset.
As you can see from the map above, England, and to a lesser degree Wales, are inundated hyatt hotel chicago with Conservative blue. Only the dense urban areas of the cities give Labour much of a chance. In the coming election, hyatt hotel chicago my prediction is that Lib Dems will be trounced. They were unfortunate hyatt hotel chicago in many ways in doing so well. As a result, they had to go into coalition (this was their only hope of ever having any power) with people with whom they disagreed vehemently on many issues. Thus they have annoyed (inevitably) many of their supporters who will defect to Labour. Labour hyatt hotel chicago will pick up some opposition votes (which is why there was such a big previous swing as they had been in for ages).
Here s the rub. If the Scottish became independence, and bearing in mind that this election was the biggest success hyatt hotel chicago for the SNP (there would normally be higher Lib Dem and Labour votes, historically speaking), there would be a massive swing toward the Conservatives. Here are the Scottish results:
So it seems that there are 49 seats in Scotland. Out of 650, that would mean the UK would move to 601 seats, but the Conservatives would have lost only 1 seat moving to 306. Which means they would not be in coalition now. And it means that Labour would have to work much harder to get into power.
What could be an interesting ramification is that Labour would be more likely to get into a coalition with the Liberal Democrats. hyatt hotel chicago That said, on these stats, Labour would get 217 seats, and Lib Dem 46, giving a total of 263, some 40 seats off a majority.
I don t have any dog in this hunt, JP, but it s unclear to me why the Scots would want to stick around. If I m correct in assuming that the yellow and red bits up north have better policies in mind, why should they want to be perpetually hyatt hotel chicago held back by all that blue?
Wow I had some idea the UK broke down this way politcaly, but I hadn t seen the actual data. I remember Iain Banks, (maybe in his last interview?), wishing aloud that he could have seen Scotland break away before he died, for the same reason unshackling hyatt hotel chicago from conservative England.
Really good question. I guess I would only make the decision based on a good understanding of the ramifications. And this not particularly evidence right now. My fear, and this is born out by psychology, is people will make gut intuitive decisions hyatt hotel chicago based on little more than a modern retelling of Braveheart. Hardly any of the population of Scotland would be qualified hyatt hotel chicago enough to make a properly informed decision.
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